Forex Forecast

The Japanese yen remains overvalued against the greenback even after posting an 8.32% loss during the month, and the USD/JPY is likely to push higher over the near-term as the economic downturn in the world’s second largest economy intensifies. The dire outlook for future growth has certainly battered the profound correlation between the yen and the stock markets, and as the low-yielding currency’s safe-haven status comes under question, the dollar-yen is expected to strengthen further over the following month to retrace the sell-off from 2008.

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EUR/USD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar. Currencies overvalued against the Dollar are denoted in RED, while those that are undervalued are denoted in GREEN.

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Tags: currency trading, forex account, forex dealing, forex exchange, Forex Forecast, forex investing, forex investments, forex options, forex trades, forex trading, forex trading online